The Relatorio Mensal do Mercado distils a full calendar month of Angolan economic and capital-market activity into a single analytical document. Published within the first ten business days of the following month, it bridges the gap between the granular weekly recaps and the broader quarterly outlook, providing a medium-frequency checkpoint for institutional allocators, development-finance officers, and corporate decision-makers.
Why a Monthly Cadence Matters
Several of Angola’s most important data releases follow a monthly rhythm. The Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE) publishes the Indice de Precos ao Consumidor (consumer price index) on a monthly basis, and the most recent annual reading stands at 15.7% year-on-year. The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) holds its Comite de Politica Monetaria (CPM, monetary policy committee) meetings on a roughly six-week cycle, meaning that most months contain either a rate decision or the release of minutes from the preceding meeting. The BNA policy rate, currently at 17.5%, is the single most watched variable in Angola’s financial system. Monthly fiscal execution data from the Ministerio das Financas reveal how the Orcamento Geral do Estado (national budget) is tracking against projections – critical in an economy where government spending constitutes a large share of GDP, estimated at $115.2 billion.
Report Structure
Each monthly report follows a consistent eight-part structure.
1. Executive Summary. A one-page overview of the month’s key developments, headline data surprises, and the research team’s updated base-case view. This section is designed to be read in under three minutes.
2. Macroeconomic Dashboard. Tables and charts presenting the month’s data releases in context: inflation (monthly and annual), GDP proxies where available, trade balance, oil production volumes, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and external reserves. The 2025 GDP growth forecast of 1.9% provides the baseline against which incoming data are evaluated.
3. Monetary Policy Review. A narrative assessment of BNA actions during the month, including any rate decision, open-market operations, Titulos do Banco Central (TBC) issuance volumes, and reserve-requirement changes. The effective interbank rate is plotted against the policy corridor to reveal whether liquidity conditions are tighter or looser than the headline rate implies.
4. Foreign-Exchange Analysis. The kwanza’s monthly trajectory against the US dollar (most recently 914.60 AOA/USD), the euro, and the South African rand. The section reports the official closing rate, the intra-month range, and parallel-market spread estimates. BNA FX auction volumes and any changes to exchange-rate management practices are documented. Oil-price movements – Brent crude near $74.50 per barrel – are mapped against FX trends to quantify the pass-through lag.
5. Equity Market Review. Monthly performance of the five BODIVA-listed equities, including BAI (near Kz 100,500) and BFA (near Kz 118,000). The section reports total transaction count, traded value, and any corporate actions (dividends declared, rights issues, board changes). With 10,328 transactions recorded across all of 2024, monthly figures are contextualised against that annual benchmark to assess whether equity-market activity is accelerating or contracting.
6. Fixed-Income Review. Summarises all primary-market bond auctions conducted during the month – OTNR and OTX – with clearing yields, bid-to-cover ratios, and total issuance volumes. Secondary-market yield-curve shifts are charted for the 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year benchmarks. Sovereign credit ratings (S&P B-, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-) anchor the relative-value discussion.
7. Regulatory and Political Update. New legislation, CMC circulars, BNA avisos (regulatory notices), and privatisation milestones are catalogued. Angola’s reform agenda generates frequent regulatory output, and the monthly report serves as a compliance-friendly log for institutional subscribers whose mandates require documented awareness of regulatory change.
8. Outlook and Risks. The closing section updates the research team’s near-term view, identifies the top three upside and downside risks for the coming month, and lists the key events on the economic calendar that could shift the narrative. This section explicitly states any changes to the team’s BNA rate-path expectation, oil-price assumption, or kwanza forecast relative to the prior month.
Data Integrity
The monthly report undergoes a two-stage quality-control process. Raw data are sourced from BNA statistical bulletins, INE releases, BODIVA settlement files, and CMC regulatory filings. A secondary verification layer cross-references BNA foreign-reserve disclosures against IMF Article IV data where timing permits. Any data revisions affecting prior months are flagged in a reconciliation table.
Accessing the Monthly Report
Each edition appears in the Latest Research feed and is available to premium subscribers as both a PDF and an interactive data workbook. Free-tier users receive the executive summary and the outlook section. The full archive of monthly reports is searchable by date and by theme, enabling longitudinal analysis across economic cycles. For the underlying real-time data, consult the Economy dashboard.