The periodic publications – weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual – capture what happened and what is likely to happen next. The Relatorios Aprofundados (deep-dive reports) address a different question: why structural features of Angola’s economy, markets, and institutions matter for long-term capital allocation. These are thematic, long-form analyses designed for readers who need to build or defend an investment thesis that extends beyond the next earnings release or rate decision.
Scope and Philosophy
Each deep dive isolates a single structural theme and examines it comprehensively. The objective is not to provide a trading signal but to map the fundamental architecture of a sector, asset class, or policy area so that investors can form independent views grounded in first-principles analysis. Where the Weekly Market Review tells you that BAI traded near Kz 100,500 this week, a deep dive explains what drives Angolan bank valuations structurally – the interplay between net interest margins compressed by a 17.5% Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) policy rate, credit growth in an economy of $115.2 billion GDP, loan-loss provisioning under kwanza volatility, and the regulatory capital framework that constrains payout ratios.
Current Deep-Dive Library
The research team maintains an expanding library of thematic reports. Each report is periodically updated as new data or policy changes warrant revision.
Banking Sector. Angola’s financial system is dominated by a small number of large banks, three of which – BAI, BFA (near Kz 118,000), and BCGA – are listed on BODIVA. The banking deep dive covers sector structure, asset-quality trends, capital adequacy, profitability drivers, and the competitive landscape following the post-2017 consolidation wave. It examines how the BNA’s monetary-policy stance and credit conditions feed through to bank earnings and equity valuations.
Oil Sector. Petroleum remains the backbone of Angola’s economy, funding roughly half of the Orcamento Geral do Estado (national budget) and generating the vast majority of foreign-exchange inflows. The oil deep dive maps Angola’s production profile by block and operator, analyses the cost structure of deepwater operations, assesses decline rates in mature fields, and evaluates the exploration pipeline. With Brent crude near $74.50 per barrel, the report models fiscal and current-account sensitivity to a $10-per-barrel move in either direction.
Fixed Income. Angola’s domestic bond market – comprising Obrigacoes do Tesouro de Taxa Nao Reajustavel (OTNR) and Obrigacoes do Tesouro Indexadas (OTX) – offers yields that attract both domestic and international investors. The fixed-income deep dive analyses the yield curve, duration risk, credit risk (sovereign ratings: S&P B-, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-), and liquidity conditions on the secondary market. It provides strategy frameworks for laddering, duration management, and inflation hedging.
Telecoms. The telecommunications sector is a leading candidate for new BODIVA listings under the government’s Programa de Privatizacoes (PROPRIV). The telecoms deep dive profiles the major operators, analyses subscriber growth and ARPU trends, evaluates the regulatory framework, and assesses the valuation implications of a potential IPO for the sector’s leading names.
FX Outlook. The kwanza (914.60 AOA/USD at last observation) is one of the most volatile frontier-market currencies. The FX deep dive models the structural determinants of supply and demand in Angola’s foreign-exchange market, assesses BNA intervention capacity, and estimates the kwanza’s fair value using purchasing-power-parity and balance-of-payments approaches.
IPO Outlook. BODIVA currently lists five companies with a combined market capitalisation of approximately $3.37 billion. The IPO deep dive analyses the privatisation pipeline, profiles the companies most likely to list next, assesses the potential impact on market liquidity (10,328 transactions in 2024 is the current benchmark), and evaluates the implications for index construction and foreign portfolio flows.
Methodology
Deep dives are built on a combination of primary data (BNA, INE, CMC, BODIVA disclosures), proprietary models, and, where possible, field interviews with sector participants, regulators, and multilateral officials in Luanda. Each report discloses its data sources and model assumptions in a dedicated methodology appendix, enabling institutional readers to perform their own sensitivity analysis. Where the research team’s view differs from consensus or from the stance of the rating agencies, the divergence is stated explicitly with supporting evidence.
Publication Cadence
Deep dives do not follow a fixed publication schedule. New reports are published when the research team identifies a structural theme that warrants full-length treatment, and existing reports are updated when material developments – a new regulation, a privatisation milestone, or a significant shift in commodity markets – alter the analytical framework. Updates are flagged in the Latest Research feed and distributed to premium subscribers alongside the new or revised PDF.
How to Navigate This Section
Reports are organised by theme. Each entry below links to the full deep dive, with a summary of the scope, the most recent update date, and the key conclusions. Premium subscribers have access to the full text and accompanying models; free-tier users can access the executive summary and key-charts section of each report.