After depreciating 39.2% against the dollar in 2023 alone, the Angolan kwanza (kwanza angolano, AOA) has entered its most stable period since the 2018 float: the USD/AOA rate has traded in a narrow 912-919 band through early 2026, with full-year 2024 depreciation contained to just 9.12%. The parallel-market premium – once a barometer of acute dollar scarcity – has compressed to approximately 9%, with informal rates near 999 AOA/USD against an official mid-rate of roughly 914.60. For the first time in nearly a decade, the gap between what businesses pay for dollars on the street and what the BNA offers at auction is small enough to be a transaction-cost friction rather than a systemic risk signal.

Key Rates (February 2026)

The Journey from 166 to 914

Angola’s FX regime has undergone three distinct phases. From independence through January 2018, the kwanza operated under a fixed peg – officially 166 AOA/USD in its final years, though the parallel market told a different story entirely. In January 2018, the BNA allowed a managed devaluation that saw the rate move to 253. Then in October 2019, the authorities adopted a managed float (regime cambial flutuante administrado), and the kwanza began to find its own level.

The depreciation path since liberalisation tells the story of an economy adjusting to market-determined pricing:

The 2022 appreciation – rare for any African currency – was driven by surging oil revenues above USD 80/bbl that flooded the BNA with dollar inflows. The sharp 2023 reversal followed oil-price moderation and a widening fiscal deficit. The current stability reflects a more sustainable equilibrium: moderate oil prices (USD 70-80/bbl), disciplined BNA monetary policy holding the base rate at 17.5%, and rebuilt reserves providing a credible defence.

BNA Reserves

Gross international reserves stood at approximately USD 15.3 billion as of late 2025, providing 7.9 months of import cover – comfortably above the IMF’s adequacy threshold and the highest coverage ratio since 2015. Reserve accumulation has been supported by three factors: consistent oil-export receipts (petroleum accounts for over 90% of Angola’s export revenue), reduced external debt service following successful Eurobond liability management, and IMF Special Drawing Rights allocations.

The reserves buffer matters for capital-market investors because it underpins the BNA’s capacity to supply dollars at FX auctions without rationing – the absence of which was the primary driver of the parallel-market blowout in 2019-2020.

Market Structure

The BNA conducts FX auctions twice weekly, selling USD to authorised commercial banks that then distribute dollars to corporate and retail clients. The auction mechanism replaced the pre-2019 administrative allocation system that had created severe dollar shortages and fuelled corruption. Under the current framework, banks bid competitively for dollar allotments, and the weighted-average auction rate effectively sets the official exchange rate.

Transparency has improved materially. Auction results – including total amounts offered, amounts allocated, and the range of accepted bids – are published on the BNA’s website. The spread between the highest and lowest accepted bids at recent auctions has typically been less than 1%, indicating genuine price discovery rather than administrative steering.

What Aviso 15/19 Means for Investors

Foreign investors in Angolan capital markets benefit from a critical regulatory protection: Aviso 15/2019, issued by the BNA, exempts capital-market investments from certain foreign-exchange controls. Specifically, proceeds from the sale of BODIVA-listed securities – equities, government bonds, and other registered instruments – can be converted to hard currency and repatriated without requiring additional BNA authorisation, provided the original investment was properly registered.

This exemption was a prerequisite for meaningful foreign portfolio flows. Without it, the risk of capital being trapped in kwanza – unable to convert at a reasonable rate or at all – would render even double-digit bond yields unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Aviso 15/19 does not eliminate currency risk, but it does eliminate convertibility risk, which is the more binary and harder-to-hedge exposure.

FX and Portfolio Strategy

For investors in Angolan treasury bills and treasury bonds, the FX outlook is the single most important variable in determining hard-currency total returns. A 364-day BT yielding 17.5% in kwanza delivers a positive USD return only if the kwanza depreciates by less than 17.5% over the holding period. With current depreciation running at less than 1% annualised, the carry trade has been strongly positive in recent quarters.

The risk scenario is a return to rapid depreciation, which could be triggered by a sustained oil-price decline below USD 60/bbl, a fiscal blowout in an election year, or a loss of BNA credibility. Investors should monitor reserves drawdowns, the parallel-market premium, and the frequency of BNA auction cancellations as early-warning indicators. Our Parallel Market tracker provides daily updates on the informal-formal spread.